Say this for the Phillies’ first offseason move to change the mix of their offense: At first blush, it’s a head-scratcher.
The Phillies agreed on a one-year contract with outfielder Max Kepler, league sources said Thursday night, confirming an MLB.com report. The team didn’t announce the deal, which is worth $10 million, because it’s pending the completion of a physical.
Kepler, who turns 32 in February, is coming off an injury-marred season with the Twins in which he posted full-season career-lows in home runs (eight) and OPS+ (91, meaning he was 9% less productive than league average). He’s also a left-handed hitter and has never played left field in 10 major-league seasons.
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The Phillies have been looking for an everyday left fielder or a potential platoon partner for lefty-hitting Brandon Marsh since they chose not to tender a contract to Austin Hays. Kepler is neither.
It’s possible that the Phillies signed Kepler to set up another move. It’s also likely that Kepler, an above-average defender in right field throughout a career spent entirely with the Minnesota Twins, can handle playing left, especially in Citizens Bank Park.
Or maybe the Phillies will shift Nick Castellanos from right field to left. Over the last five seasons, Kepler ranks fifth among all right fielders with 23 defensive runs saved.
Kepler does possess a trait as a hitter that the Phillies are seeking: strike-zone discipline. He has swung at 25.3% of pitches out of the zone in his career, better than league average (28.5%) and the Phillies’ mark last season (30.3%). For a lineup filled with aggressive hitters who are often attacked with pitches out of the zone, that isn’t insignificant.
Otherwise, Kepler hasn’t come close to approximating his career-best 2019 season, when he bashed 36 homers and posted an .855 OPS. Since then, he has topped 20 homers and an .800 OPS only once, both in 2023.
Last season, Kepler was limited to 105 games by patellar tendinitis in his left knee and a related issue with his hip. He batted .253, reached base at a .302 clip, and notched a .682 OPS.
“It’s not the way I’d like to go out as a Twin, but then again, [stuff] happens,” Kepler told reporters in September. “The game comes with a lot of unexpected adversity and challenges, and I’m proud of myself for what I’ve done as an individual, as a teammate, as a friend to everyone in this clubhouse and in the past years prior.”
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Like newly signed reliever Jordan Romano, who also agreed to a one-year deal, the Phillies likely view Kepler as an experienced player with a solid track record who will be motivated to rebuild his value for a return to the free-agent market next winter.
Kepler was the Twins’ longest-tenured player. He signed with them in 2009 as a 16-year-old amateur from Germany, came through the farm system, and made his major-league debut in September 2015.
The Phillies’ outfield is now comprised of Castellanos, Kepler, Marsh, and Johan Rojas. If Kepler is earmarked for everyday at-bats in a corner outfield spot, Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon in center. The Phillies ranked 20th and tied for 15th in OPS out of center field (.644) and left (.710) last season, with Rojas and Marsh getting most of the at-bats at those positions.
Hays, a right-handed hitter, was acquired in a deadline trade in July to help add offense in left field. But he dealt with a hamstring injury and a kidney infection that diminished his production. With his salary projected to rise to $6.8 million in arbitration, the Phillies chose to move on.
The free-agent outfield market wasn’t deep beyond megastar Juan Soto, who signed a landmark $756 million contract with the New York Mets. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Jurickson Profar are in the next tier of free agents, and although none has signed yet, all are believed to be seeking contracts in excess of $20 million per year — and reportedly for multiple years.
By committing $10 million to Kepler, the Phillies boosted their projected payroll to approximately $296 million, as calculated for the luxury tax. The highest luxury-tax threshold is $301 million. Every dollar spent above that mark would carry a 110% tariff.
