Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 17! Hopefully, you’re reading this as you prepare to compete for a fantasy football championship. If not, at least you’re staying locked in and will be ready to make another run at it next season. Either way, whether you’ve been reading this piece all season or just came across it today, thank you for taking the time to read it. Now, as usual, let’s begin this article by looking at the overall target leaders so far this season.
Target Trends
Despite missing two games earlier this season, Malik Nabers has taken over as the most-targeted player in the league. Not only does he lead in overall targets (154), but his 11.8 targets/game are well ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams, who are at 10.1 targets/game each. Lamb is second overall with 152 targets, Ja’Marr Chase is next with 146, and Garrett Wilson has 141. Nobody else has reached 140 targets.
Brock Bowers leads all tight ends with 137 targets. He’s on pace for 155.3 targets, which is excruciatingly close to the tight end record of 156 targets set by Zach Ertz in 2018. Travis Kelce is second with 122 targets and Trey McBride is right behind him with 120. Nobody else at the position has reached 100.
It’s been a down year for running backs through the air. Despite missing Monday night’s game, Alvin Kamara still leads the position with 89 targets. De’Von Achane is closing in with 85, and Breece Hall’s 70 is good enough for third.
I’ve led off this article with season-long target leaders all year. Now, let’s check out the weekly target trends heading into Week 17 and fantasy football championships.
A.J. Brown – 15 targets, 8 rec
After a midseason lull, Brown has now combined for 26 targets over the last two games. His 15 targets this week were a season-high and accounted for an insane 60% target share, bringing him up to 34.8% on the season. AJB is a must-start in championship week, even if it’s Kenny Pickett at quarterback for the Eagles.
Malik Nabers – 14 targets, 7 rec
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I mentioned Nabers in the opening but he deserves his own blurb. He only needs 13 targets over the next two games to break the rookie record. If he does, he will do it in just 15 games after missing weeks five and six with a concussion. If the Giants draft a franchise quarterback this spring, Nabers will be a fantasy WR1 for years to come.
Brock Bowers – 13 targets, 11 rec
Speaking of rookies, Bowers is breaking records as well. He’s already smashed the previous rookie record of 128 targets at the position. Now his sights are set on the overall position record, which he can hit if he gets 19 targets over the last two games. As Travis Kelce ages out, it appears that Bowers is ready to take over as the TE1 in fantasy football.
Justin Jefferson – 13 targets, 10 rec
You don’t need me to tell you that Justin Jefferson earns targets. He’s the WR2 in all of fantasy football and he’s seen 13 targets in back-to-back games. He’s locked into your championship lineup if you have him, no further analysis is needed.
Davante Adams – 13 targets, 7 rec
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have been hyper-focusing on Adams since their Week 12 bye. He’s averaged 12.0 targets and a 33% target share over the last four games. He has carried teams through the fantasy playoffs and there is no need to abandon him now.
Keenan Allen – 13 targets, 9 rec
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After accumulating 13 targets in Weeks 13 and 14 combined, Allen has hit that number in consecutive games. He’s now topped 100 targets for the ninth time in his career. It’s tough to imagine benching him in the fantasy championship this week.
Brian Thomas Jr. – 13 targets, 9 rec
BTJ is averaging an absurd 12.3 targets/game over the last four weeks, accounting for a 33% target share. Even with Mac Jones at quarterback, he’s averaged 20.1 fantasy points/game over that span. He’s the WR6 on the season and was arguably the best value of fantasy draft season back in August.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 12 targets, 8 rec
Not DK Metcalf, not Tyler Lockett. There has been a changing of the guard at wide receiver in Seattle with JSN leading the way. His 126 targets lead the team and are already 33 more than he saw as a rookie. He has a 24.2% target share, has seen 12 targets in consecutive games, and is the overall WR7 in fantasy football.
Wan’Dale Robinson – 12 targets, 7 rec
Robinson doesn’t produce many fantasy points, but he does see a lot of targets. He’s averaged 10.7 targets/game over the last three weeks and ranks 20th overall with 123 targets on the season. He works in a pinch if you are desperate heading into the championship round.
Cincinnati Bengals Pass-Catchers
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Ja’Marr Chase is pursuing the receiving triple crown but Tee Higgins led the way with 11 targets in Week 16. Chase was no slouch, seeing eight targets himself. Nobody else on the Bengals saw more than three targets. Chase and Higgins have a combined 54.3% target share on the season.
Chigoziem Okonkwo – 11 targets, 9 rec
Chig has a chance to be a fantasy football league winner. He’s combined for 21 targets over the last two weeks and has finished as a top-seven tight end each week. He has been the most targeted tight end over the past two weeks and is a viable option in fantasy championships.
Javonte Williams – 11 targets, 7 rec
Williams saw double-digit targets for the second time in his career and the first time this season. Still, he only turned them into 29 receiving yards and finished as the RB32 on the week. It’s usually worth targeting running backs that see work through the air but Williams has not been trustworthy all season and that doesn’t change for Week 17.
Xavier Worthy – 11 targets, 7 rec
Worthy saw double-digit targets for the first time in his rookie season a week ago and then matched that number again in Week 16. Kansas City’s first-round pick has seen a 28% target share over the last two weeks and finished as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in both weeks. He gets a tough matchup with Pittsburgh in the fantasy championship but it’s tough to bench him after two strong weeks.
Dalton Schultz – 8 targets, 5 rec
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Schultz matched his season high with eight targets in Week 16. Tank Dell left the game with what is likely a season-ending knee injury. He hasn’t been reliable most of the season, but Schultz is a usable option at tight end in fantasy championships.
Miami Dolphins Pass-Catchers
It wouldn’t be a target trends article without examining Miami’s pass catchers. De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill led the way with seven targets apiece, while Jonnu Smith was just one behind them. Smith is up to 95 targets, well above his previous career high of 70. Achane has seen more than double the 37 targets that went his way as a rookie. On the other hand, it’s technically a down year for Hill. He’s up to 111 targets but that is well behind the 166 targets/season he’s averaged the last three years.
Cooper Kupp – 3 targets, 3 rec
Technically, Kupp had a better showing in Week 16 than he did the week prior. However, his three receptions for 24 yards probably weren’t enough to get you through to the championship round, even if you did survive his Week 15 goose egg. It will be awfully tough to trust him in Week 17 if you somehow managed to survive his back-to-back landmines.
Kyle Pitts – 2 targets, 1 red
The quarterback change from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix Jr. did not have much effect on Pitts. The former first-round tight end hasn’t topped six targets in a game since Week 7 and has just a 14.1% target share on the season. Despite his athleticism and draft capital, the production has not manifested for Pitts.
