The Arkansas State Red Wolves have transformed what looked like a lost season into a shot at eight wins, while the Bowling Green Falcons came just a few plays short of a MAC Championship appearance.
Who carries momentum into the offseason, and who’s left dwelling on missed chances? See where we’re leaning in this Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green prediction.
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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Betting Preview
All Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
- Bowling Green -7
- Spread
- Bowling Green -10
- Moneyline
- Bowling Green -360, Arkansas State +285
- Over/Under
- 53.5 points
- Game Time
- Thursday, Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET
- Location
- Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, AL
- How To Watch
- ESPN
While both teams have a few players entering the transfer portal, their rosters are in decent shape heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green could be missing starting right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger and linebacker Jordan Sipp Jr., but star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is expected to play.
The line on this game hasn’t moved much, opening at Bowling Green -7.5 and ticking down to Bowling Green -7. The total has moved up from 49.5. Fannin’s decision to play is exciting for the Falcons, football fans, and bettors alike.
Arkansas State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is completely in line with Vegas, making Arkansas State a seven-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 31.2%.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Falcons are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 68.8%. Despite the identical records, Bowling Green is the better team on paper, even if the MAC has struggled in bowl games over the past few seasons.
- vs. Arkansas State: 68.8%
Prediction for Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
I’m a big believer in analytics, though I rarely dive into them directly in these previews. Today, I’m breaking that habit.
From an analytical standpoint, in small sample sizes, a coach’s record in close games largely comes down to luck. These two teams are a textbook example of that principle.
Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are 7-5, but they’ve arrived here in completely different ways. Butch Jones’ Arkansas State squad has been outscored by a significant margin this season. When they lose, they lose big—by an average of 26.2 points per game, including several blowouts.
Meanwhile, their wins have been nail-biters. Six of their victories have come by seven points or fewer, including a controversial Week 1 win over FCS Central Arkansas that hinged on an incorrect call. The Red Wolves have been outscored by 90 points overall this season.
Bowling Green, on the other hand, has struggled in close games, going 1-3 in one-score matchups. However, with Connor Bazelak at the helm, those close losses include narrow margins to Texas A&M and Penn State.
Yet, when the Falcons win, they win convincingly, reflected in their season point differential of +78. Analytically, that points to a significant quality gap between these two teams. The question is whether Bowling Green can capitalize on it.
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Assuming Fannin plays, I expect the Falcons to move the ball at will against a team that has relied heavily on turnover luck this season. The Red Wolves rank 132nd in yards per rush allowed and 117th in yards per pass allowed.
Now, they’re up against the best receiver they’ve faced all year and an offense that protects the ball exceptionally well, ranking 19th nationally in fewest turnovers.
All signs point to a regression to the mean for Arkansas State. While I’m usually cautious about backing MAC teams in bowl games, this one is different—I’ve already placed my bet.
Take Bowling Green in a blowout that clears the over as Butch Jones’ luck runs out. The Falcons are a strong play against a Red Wolves team that is 1-4 against the spread when getting more than a field goal.
Prediction: Bowling Green 37, Arkansas State 20
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