HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 02: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros looks on prior to Game Two of the Wild Card Series against the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park on October 02, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
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Justin Verlander will likely be a better pitcher in 2025 than his ugly end-of-2024 results suggest. I still doubt the Houston Astros will regret letting the future Hall of Famer depart in free agency this winter.
Verlander, who will turn 42 next month, signed a one-year, $15 million contract with the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, and he now looks to revive his career in a new pitcher-friendly park. Verlander limped through the end of 2024 with a 9.26 ERA across his final five starts. The former top ace was left off Houston’s playoff roster, then admitted he rushed back last season after returning from an extended absence due to a neck injury.
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Veteran guile and a clean bill of health could very well bring Verlander’s ERA closer to league average in 2025, and with it perhaps a satisfying end to a historic career. Still, even those results wouldn’t be worth $15 million to the current iteration of the Astros.
Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros walks off the field in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 02, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
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Current salary projections paint a shaky picture for Houston’s prospects of adding any sizable portion of payroll before next season. The Astros’ 2025 payroll is currently flirting with the $241 luxury tax threshold, and even if minor additions were made before Opening Day, there’s little-to-no chance Houston opts to leap into the next tax bracket at $261 million. Add Verlander, and the $241 million jumps to $255-plus million, with little-to-know wiggle room for in-season additions.
Astros owner Jim Crane isn’t cheap. He’s also not New York Mets owner Steve Cohen in Queens. There’s self-imposed spending constraints in place in Houston, keeping both Verlander and Alex Bregman from returning this winter.
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Owner and Chairman Jim Crane of the Houston Astros at a press conference announcing the retirement of Dusty Baker Jr. as manager from the team at Minute Maid Park on October 26, 2023 in Houston, Texas.
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Astros fans in tune with the club’s spending will note Crane isn’t totally tethered to staying under the luxury tax, and he exceeded the apron last season in order to add closer Josh Hader. Another splurge could reasonably be in order, though when assessing the current roster, it’s far more likely an impact bat is pursued over another arm.
Crane and Co. proved immune to the pull of nostalgia in eschewing big-money contracts for George Springer, Carlos Correa and now Bregman. Houston’s brass is now doing the same with Verlander, who will now head west to take the mound for a fourth MLB franchise.
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Jan 8, 2025
