The FCS Playoffs semifinals have arrived, giving us two stellar matchups to go alongside Saturday’s College Football Playoff games.
First, we have a rematch in the Dakota Marker, with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits traveling to the Fargodome to take on the North Dakota State Bison.
Then, to cap off the FCS action, the South Dakota Coyotes will head out west to meet the Montana State Bobcats.
There’s plenty of action to get to, so let’s dive into our FCS Playoffs picks and college football predictions for the two semifinal games on Saturday, Dec. 21.
FCS Playoffs Picks
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Pick
South Dakota State (12-2, 7-1 Missouri Valley Football Conference) will travel to Fargo, North Dakota, on Saturday, December 21st, for a rematch of an earlier-season “Dakota Marker Showdown” with North Dakota State (12-2, 7-1 MVFC).
The game kicks off at 12:00 PM ET and can be seen live on ESPN and ABC.
South Dakota State squandered several opportunities in the first matchup between these familiar foes.
South Dakota State is a 3-point road favorite with a 47.5-point over/under.
This is projected to be an exceptional FCS football game between two premier powers in the subdivision.
Read on for our South Dakota State vs North Dakota State predictions and college football picks for this FCS Playoff game.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Dakota State enters Saturday playing its best football of the season.
The Jackrabbits quickly dispatched Montana and Incarnate Word during this playoff run.
The Jacks are playing tenacious football at all three levels on defense, allowing just three total first-half points combined through their first two playoff games.
In fact, they’ve been excellent all year. The defensive line has registered 32 sacks and 86 tackles for loss, while the secondary has snatched 14 interceptions and registered 44 pass breakups.
On the whole, South Dakota State allows only 13 points per game.
The run game is humming behind the dynamic duo of Amar Johnson and Angel Johnson, who have rushed for a combined 1,791 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. South Dakota State is averaging 6.4 yards per rush.
Plus, South Dakota State opened up the play-calling earlier in the playoffs, which paid off tremendously.
I feel good about how the Jackrabbits match up against North Dakota State and expect a strong performance on Saturday.
North Dakota State has rolled through its first few playoff opponents.
The Bison handled Mercer last week, dropping 31 points while limiting the Bears to seven points on 195 total yards and eight total first downs.
While they generated three long explosive plays in the first half, the Bison offense stalled out in the second half. That concerns me when considering the matchup against South Dakota State’s immense defense.
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Prediction
I’m going to lay the points with South Dakota State.
North Dakota State’s defense struggled to contain South Dakota State’s ground attack in the first matchup, mainly because the Bison struggled to tackle in space. The Jackrabbits will again find ways to get their running backs in advantageous one-on-one situations.
Meanwhile, the Bison struggled to get a push on the offensive line against Abilene Christian and Mercer. I don’t expect them to improve against a Jackrabbits defensive line that has surrendered 58 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry over the past four weeks.
Cam Miller has been fantastic for the Bison, and he’s been excellent on late downs. But he will have to play his best football of the season on third downs against a Jackrabbits defense that has allowed a 28% third-down conversion rate.
Bruce Lance is the primary option for Miller, as no other receiver has 30 catches on the year. I expect the Jackrabbits to lock in on Lance during these critical third-down situations — it helps that they have four all-conference players in the secondary.
South Dakota State’s more aggressive game plans during these playoffs should be critical.
The Jacks have the best receiver in the conference, Griffin Wilde, who can make every contested catch and will blow by defenders. He has four touchdowns during this playoff run and is being utilized well as an early-game weapon.
Wilde stretching the field opens up the Jackrabbits’ rushing attack and should keep them ahead of the sticks.
South Dakota State knows it missed some chances in the first matchup between these two teams and has unquestionably learned from its mistakes. I’m confident in the group’s performance and ready to back the best defense in the FCS alongside quarterback Mark Gronowski’s mistake-free play.
Pick: South Dakota State -3 (-110, Caesars)
South Dakota vs. Montana State Pick
The South Dakota Coyotes (11-2, 7-1 MVFC) travel to Bozeman, Montana, to take on the Montana State Bobcats (14-0, 8-0 Big Sky) in FCS semifinal action on Saturday, Dec. 21. This game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
We’re down to four teams remaining in the FCS Playoffs with a trip to the national championship on the line this week. The top four seeds held serve last week, covering the spread and setting up titanic battles for supremacy between the Big Sky and Missouri Valley Football Conference.
The Bobcats are seeking to get back to the FCS national title game for the first time since 2021, and they’ve been laser-focused all season.
South Dakota is in unfamiliar territory here, as the Coyotes are making their first appearance in the FCS semis. While this figures to be a competitive football game, USD has its work cut out for it going on the road and attempting to slow down the No. 1 scoring offense in FCS.
Montana State enters as a -8 favorite with the over/under set at 56.5.
Let’s dive into my South Dakota vs. Montana State predictions and college football picks for the FCS Playoffs on Saturday, Dec. 21.
South Dakota comes in off a big home win last week over UC Davis. The Aggies were a trendy underdog pick to go into Vermillion and upset the Coyotes.
USD was the beneficiary of six UC Davis turnovers and won by margin despite getting outgained by 55 yards.
For the second week in a row, the South Dakota defense was uncharacteristically exposed. Tarleton State and UC Davis are the only opponents to surpass 400 total yards of offense against USD. If a third straight opponent can do that, USD will see its season end with a long plane ride home.
Offensively, South Dakota is going to have to create explosive plays on the ground and via the play-action pass — something it wasn’t known for doing this season.
The Coyotes prefer a methodical run-heavy approach with play-action off that, but USD missed some of those deep-shot opportunities last week.
Montana State’s defensive front has played well this season, registering 34 sacks and 83 tackles for loss. While the Bobs aren’t turnover-reliant, the defense forces teams to make tough offensive decisions on third and fourth down at critical junctures.
USD is very conservative by nature and has attempted a fourth-down conversion on just six occasions all year. Instead, it defaults to punting and playing the field-position game, which could be a problem if playing from behind.
Montana State has been the class of FCS football all season, and last week was no different. Last week’s 52-19 victory over Idaho was competitive for long stretches of the first half, as Idaho was at full strength compared to the first meeting between the two.
Three touchdowns late in the first half busted this game open, and the mistakes compounded for Idaho in the second half to turn what was a 10-10 game into a 52-10 game rather quickly.
We’ve kept waiting for Montana State to show weakness or inconsistency, but it hasn’t come to fruition thus far. I expect another strong performance from the Bobs here.
Montana State has played its best defense on third down this season, allowing a conversion on just 32.1% of attempts. This defense is rarely caught out of position, and the back-end coverage has been solid all season in forcing 49 pass breakups.
The unit has surrendered just 187 pass yards per game all season. USD is a very physical team and Montana State will be tested here, but the USD pass attack is predicated on deep shots. That’s just not something the Bobcats give up.
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South Dakota vs. Montana State Prediction
My play on this one may seem square and obvious, but I’m going to lay the number with Montana State.
South Dakota is going to have to play a near-perfect football game for this one to remain close. I’m concerned about USD’s ability to limit explosive plays against the Bobcats here.
Montana State running back Scottre Humphrey is coming back from injury and is a major X-factor in the ground game. Humphrey has 1,325 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season while averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
His production, along with running quarterback Tommy Mellott, will stress the USD defense unlike any other opponent this season. The Bobcats will gain explosive chunk plays on the ground, and we should see deep shots downfield when the defense has to creep up and stack the box.
Montana State has also been the best red-zone team in FCS all season, scoring on 58-of-60 trips inside the 20-yard line. Fifty of those 58 scores have been touchdowns.
Cashing in during scoring opportunities is critical when it comes to covering the spread, and relying on red-zone turnovers — like USD has done over the last two weeks — is not sustainable. The Bobcats are not flippant with the football and rarely make mistakes, especially at home.
We seem to be on a collision course in FCS, and while South Dakota has its best team in program history, it finds itself in uncharted territory here.
I’m certain the ‘Yotes will play with max effort here, but they’re not as talented offensively and haven’t been playing cohesively enough on defense for me to assume they’re going to play perfect football in this game — a requirement when playing Montana State on the road.
Lay it with Montana State up to -9.5.
Pick: Montana State -8 (Play to -9.5)
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