NFL Playoff Picture Entering Week 18: Breaking Down Playoff Scenarios

Dec 29, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against Green Bay Packers in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The NFL saved the best for last when it comes to the regular season.

The Detroit Lions will host the Minnesota Vikings in a prime-time, high-stakes matchup that will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The winner will get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, and the loser will go on the road as a wild-card team in the opening round.

A loss on Sunday night will not crush either team’s playoff hopes, but a win will make things significantly more favorable for a potential Super Bowl run.

The Lions-Vikings showdown is obviously the best game, but it is not the only game this weekend that includes postseason implications.

Here is a look at the playoff picture entering Week 18:

AFC

Dec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (left) and tight end Travis Kelce (right) open their Netflix Christmas GameDay cake after the Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

The Chiefs already have clinched the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. Their biggest goal is to stay healthy in a regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos that is essentially meaningless to Kansas City.

2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Buffalo also can let the foot off the gas this week against New England. The Bills have locked up the AFC East crown and the No. 2 seed.

3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Baltimore won the AFC North with a win against the Cleveland Browns, coupled with the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Steelers.

4. Houston Texans (9-7)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are set to return to the playoffs. They have clinched the AFC South and the No. 4 seed.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)

Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers also have locked up a playoff bid. They can bump up to the No. 5 seed if they beat the Las Vegas Raiders and the Steelers lose to Cincinnati. If those two things do not happen, the Chargers will be the No. 6 seed.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)/Denver Broncos (9-7)

So you’re telling me I have a chance. The Bengals have a glimmer of hope to reach the playoffs because they beat the Steelers to win a fifth consecutive game but still need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs and the Dolphins to lose to the Jets.

The Broncos got no help from the Bengals but can clinch a playoff spot by beating or tying the Chiefs, who will be resting their most important players.

8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)

The Dolphins grab the final wild-card spot if they beat the Jets and if the Broncos lose to the Chiefs. Nobody will be cheering harder for Kansas City than the Dolphins this weekend.

NFC

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

1. Detroit Lions (14-2)

As we mentioned above, the Lions can lock up the No. 1 seed and a bye with a win or tie against the Vikings. It’s incredible drama for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Eagles have clinched the NFC East and the No. 2 seed. This weekend’s finale against the New York Giants is nothing but a final warm-up.

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

The Rams have clinched the NFC West. They can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win or tie against the Seattle Seahawks, and they also will clinch the third spot if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose or tie against the New Orleans Saints. Otherwise, the Rams will slip to the No. 4 seed.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

The Buccaneers will be NFC South champions if they win or tie against the injury-riddled Saints. They also will win the division if the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers. There is a path for Tampa Bay to grab a No. 3 seed, but the most likely outcome is that they beat New Orleans and earn the No. 4 seed.

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)

The Vikings can leap to No. 1 with a win on Sunday night. Otherwise, they will be the top wild-card team in the NFC and have to do their work on the road throughout the playoffs. If the Vikings finish No. 1, the Lions will slide to No. 5.

6. Washington Commanders (11-5)

The Commanders have clinched a playoff spot, so that is not in question. The only thing left to be decided is whether Washington can secure the No. 6 seed, which it would do with a win against the Dallas Cowboys or a loss by the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears.

7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

The Packers can move up to No. 6 with a win over Chicago and a Commanders loss against the Cowboys. Otherwise, Green Bay will get the No. 7 seed.

8. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Yes, we skipped No. 8—bear with us. The Seattle Seahawks technically are in the eighth spot, but they have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Falcons sit in ninth but have a shot to clinch the NFC South if they beat Carolina and if the Buccaneers fall to the Saints. This is a long shot, but Atlanta is not out yet.

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