Texas and Ohio State clash in the Cotton Bowl on Friday night in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
That both have reached this point of the inaugural 12-team Playoff is a testament to the new format. With Ohio State losing to Michigan in its final game of the regular season and Texas suffering a second loss to Georgia in the SEC title game, neither would have made the CFP under the old 4-team format. But Ohio State dispatched the top overall seed, Oregon, in blowout fashion while Texas toppled 2 conference champions to reach the semis.
The Buckeyes are nearly a touchdown favorite in the game. Below is a full betting breakdown of the matchup.
Spread: Ohio State -5.5
Total: 52.5 points
Moneyline: Ohio State -118, Texas -104
via FanDuel
The Buckeyes looked like the most talented team in the country prior to the season’s first kickoff, but too frequently they got in their own way and played below their standard. The regular-season-ending loss to Michigan seems to have lit a fire under Ryan Day’s squad, as the Buckeyes have morphed into the most dangerous team in college football — by a wide margin.
Ohio State has wins by 25 and 20 points in its first 2 College Football Playoff games.
The run has been fueled by a few tweaks to the way the Buckeyes operate. Ohio State has used more Cover 2, dropped Jordan Hancock deeper into the secondary, and brought wrecking-ball safety Caleb Downs closer to the box more often. The Buckeyes have 19 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in 2 Playoff games. Dillon Gabriel, the most experienced FBS quarterback in history, looked lost in the quarterfinal loss to Ohio State.
In first quarters, Ohio State has jumped all over teams. Tennessee had 9 rushing attempts for 16 yards while Ohio State threw for 160 yards and scored 21 points in the opening quarter of its first-round game. Oregon had 4 rushing attempts for 7 yards while Ohio State threw for 212 yards and scored 14 points in the opening quarter of the quarterfinals. Ohio State is plus-35 in the first quarter on the scoreboard and outgaining its opponents 11.2 yards per play to 2.0 through 2 Playoff games.
Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has pushed the ball early and often to freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has drawn 9 first-quarter targets in the last 2 games and produced 5 explosive plays on them.
Quarterback Will Howard has been exceptional through the Buckeyes’ first 2 Playoff games. A 63.2% passer who has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt over the course of his 5-year career, Howard has completed 74.5% of his throws and averaged a ridiculous 11.5 yards per pass attempt in the Playoff. He threw for 319 yards and 3 scores in the win over Oregon — a top-20 pass defense based on EPA per dropback.
Judged by QBR, 2 of the 3 best games of Howard’s career have come in the last 2 Playoff games. Something about Ohio State quarterbacks and the College Football Playoff… He’s on an all-time heater.
In terms of weaknesses, the Buckeyes were criticized during the regular season for their physicality in and around the line of scrimmage. The defense ranks in the 31st percentile nationally for line yards allowed to opposing offenses (offensive lines were getting push against the Buckeyes) and the offense struggled to run the ball against some of the more physical run-stopping units it faced (77 yards on 26 carries against Michigan sticks in the craw).
That being said, Ohio State has averaged 5.3 yards per carry through 2 Playoff games. And against Oregon, Ohio State had a whopping 40% run stuff rate.
The Longhorns’ biggest strength is their defense. Per Game on Paper, Texas ranks No. 1 in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Just looking at basic counting stats, the Longhorns are No. 2 in down-to-down efficiency, giving up only 4.3 yards per play. They have the best pass defense in the country, allowing only 5.5 yards per attempt, and they have the second-most interceptions (21) of any team in the country. Only 5 FBS teams have more tackles for loss. Only 1 FBS team has more takeaways. And only 1 FBS team has forced opposing offenses into more third downs. Texas has allowed the second-fewest red zone touchdowns of any team in the country and has the second-best havoc rate of any defense in the country.
On paper, this is a titan.
There is a caveat.
Texas has played 15 games already and it has only faced 5 teams with a top-50 offense — Arizona State, Clemson, Arkansas, Georgia, and Mississippi State.
Texas has only faced 1 offense that ranks in the top 25 in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. That offense belonged to Arizona State, which scored 31 points, put up 510 yards, and took the Longhorns to double-overtime.
Arizona State ranked eighth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.
Ohio State ranks second.
It’s a question of whether the Longhorns juiced the numbers against bad competition — they faced 5 offenses that rank outside the top 100 in adjusted EPA per play — or if Texas has just simply played below its standard.
The secondary is littered with accolades. Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back. He, along with safeties Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba, are 3 of the 7 highest-graded defensive backs in coverage at the power conference level, per PFF (min. 500 snaps). Edge Barryn Sorrell ranks 14th in total quarterback pressures among power conference players. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was among the SEC’s defensive leaders in stops — defined by PFF as plays constituting a failure for the offense.
The actual weaknesses rest on the other side of the football.
Texas allows a ton of havoc to opposing defenses, ranking in the fifth percentile nationally. It doesn’t get a ton of explosives from the run game (and had none against Arizona State) and faces a ton of third-and-longs. Sacks are a big reason why. The Longhorns have given up 33 in 15 games.
And quarterback Quinn Ewers has struggled under pressure. His completion percentage drops nearly 20 percentage points when pressured versus when he’s kept clean (70.0 to 52.4%) and his passer rating drops from 112.5 to 64.3. Of the 99 FBS quarterbacks this season with at least 300 dropbacks, Ewers’ 4.0% turnover-worthy throw rate ranks 78th.
The first drive was problematic throughout the regular season. Texas only scored 3 opening-drive touchdowns in 13 games. It punted 4 times, missed 2 field goals, and turned the ball over 4 times. The ‘Horns averaged just 5.5 yards per play on their opening possessions. Given Steve Sarkisian’s reputation as an elite script-writer, the struggles were jarring.
In the Playoff, Texas has been better. The Longhorns scored on a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown on their opening possession against Clemson. Then UT scored in 2 plays and 77 yards against Arizona State.
Texas needs those effective starts to continue against Ohio State.
Ohio State is 8-6 against the spread this season. But, as with most other metrics, they’ve been red-hot in the CFP. They’ve covered both Playoff spreads by a combined 35.5 points. Ohio State is also 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
Texas is 8-7 ATS this season. After a 5-1 start, Texas is just 3-6 ATS since the Red River Rivalry game. That includes 2 outright losses as a favorite to Georgia, and an ATS loss last week as a 13.5-point favorite over ASU. Under Steve Sarkisian, Texas is 2-4 ATS as an underdog with only 1 outright victory.
Ohio State bettors can get the Buckeyes -5.5 at FanDuel. Caesars has the best price on Texas +6.
The over is 5-4 so far in this 12-team College Football Playoff. Overs have cashed in both of Ohio State’s Playoff games and both of Texas’s Playoff games so far. Prior to the postseason, the under had hit in 8 of UT’s 13 games and 7 of Ohio State’s 12 games.
At the time of publication, a total of 52.5 is painted across the board at all the major shops. BetMGM had the best price on the over while FanDuel has the best price on the under.
While the Texas secondary is stout, the Longhorns’ No. 2 corner, Malik Muhammad, has been beatable this season. Muhammad is allowing 14.5 yards per reception and catches on 51.8% of his targets this season. As a unit, Texas gave up 336 yards through the air to Cade Klubnik and then gave up 296 yards to Arizona State. Ohio State has been much more willing to throw the ball deep in the postseason, and with Jeremiah Smith commanding so much attention, Emeka Egbuka is an attractive play. Egbuka has at least 70 yards receiving in 3 of his last 4, with the lone exception being the Michigan game. He caught 5 balls for 81 yards in the CFP first round and then another 5 balls for 72 yards against Oregon. DraftKings has -125 odds on Egbuka clearing 66 receiving yards.
Stick with the receiving props and take Texas tailback Quintrevion Wisner to go over 25 receiving yards (+105 via DraftKings). When the Texas ground game short-circuited against Arizona State and Wisner was limited to 45 rushing yards on 18 carries, Texas involved him a bit more in the pass game and got 4 receptions for 40 yards out of him. Against an Ohio State front seven that is going to feverishly come after Quinn Ewers, I think Texas will try to keep Wisner involved in the game via quick passes and screens.
I envision Ohio State rolling to another win, so I’m backing the Buckeyes -5.5 at FanDuel. The Buckeyes are peaking, playing far and away like the best team in the country. I see Ohio State jumping on Texas early, as it did Tennessee and Oregon, and forcing the Longhorns to throw to get themselves going. Quinn Ewers has 19 turnover-worthy throws this season and that becomes a problem in this game. Texas hasn’t been up to snuff when facing better competition and Ohio State will be the best yet.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
