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Texas has reached consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals and posted 25 wins over two years. You have to go all the way back to when Colt McCoy was playing quarterback during coach Mack Brown’s heyday more than 15 years ago to find a better stretch.

There is no question that Texas is back.

But in the wake of their 28-14 CFP semifinal loss to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Friday, the Longhorns must turn the page at quarterback if they want to win their first national championship since 2005 next year.

They must embrace the paradigm-shifting potential of Arch Manning.

We’ve seen it in glimpses over the past two seasons, but now it’s time to see it in bulk. Manning is draft-eligible in 2026, and it’s now or never if Texas wants to realize the full capabilities of its prized Class of 2023 recruit.

McCoy was a great Texas quarterback who took the Longhorns to the doorstep of a national title, just as Quinn Ewers has done for the Longhorns the past two seasons. But Brown’s only national championship — and Texas’ only crown since 1970 — came behind the generational quarterback play of Vince Young. 

Like Young, Manning’s dynamic play is capable of masking a team’s imperfections. Manning’s running ability could be particularly important in 2025 as the Longhorns could lose both their starting offensive tackles to the NFL draft and potentially four of five offensive line starters. 

Quarterback isn’t the only question Texas must answer entering coach Steve Sarkisian’s fifth season, but it’s the most important. Out of the gate, the Longhorns will be asked to do something they couldn’t do in 2024: beat an elite team.

Sarkisian’s club accomplished plenty in 2024: finishing 13-3, reaching the SEC Championship Game during its first season in the league and winning two CFP games. But it never beat a team that finished in the top 10 of the final CFP rankings. 

Its best victories ultimately came against No. 12 Arizona State and No. 16 Clemson in a favorable CFP draw that gave Texas two foes who wouldn’t have been in the playoff if not for a system that awards automatic bids to the top five conference champions.

In opportunities against elite competition, Texas got smacked around at home by Georgia and lost to the Bulldogs in an SEC title game rematch, even after knocking Georgia starting quarterback Carson Beck out of the game in the first half.

Then came Friday night, which was as much about Ohio State’s newfound high gear as it was about the Longhorns. But the loss underscored the reality that Texas is still one rung below college football’s ruling class.

Texas opens the 2025 season at Ohio State in a Cotton Bowl rematch that will provide an early litmus test for the Longhorns — and Manning is the type of talent who can bridge that gap.

Going from good to great requires risk, and there is surely some level of discomfort for Sarkisian in going all in on Manning. It requires parting ways with a proven winner in Ewers. If Ewers doesn’t declare for the NFL draft, the idea of a homegrown quarterback prospect with his solid track record potentially suiting up for another team in 2025 is a tough reality to contemplate.

Ewers is the type of steady, high-floor quarterback that coaches love, and he’s played a significant role in elevating Texas out of its decade-plus slump. 

For whatever risk there may be in letting him go, it is far outweighed by the opportunity cost that comes with squandering Manning’s patience and potential.

Of Texas’ eight SEC opponents in 2025, only Georgia and Texas A&M finished with a winning record in league play during 2024. The other six — Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — went a combined 13-35 against conference competition.

After Ohio State, it’s not exactly a murderers’ row. Following their Aug. 30 clash with the Buckeyes, the Longhorns do not play another team that finished in the 2024 CFP top 25 until traveling to Georgia on Nov. 15.

If Manning has some hiccups as a first-year starter, fine. Let him work those out. The talent around him will ensure the Longhorns won’t fall far.

Questions on defense

Texas is losing a pair of star defensive backs in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Both players intercepted five passes in the 2024 season and proved invaluable in helping the Longhorns make massive improvements to their pass defense. Veteran safety Michael Taaffe is eligible to return as a productive anchor in the secondary, but replacing a pair of all-conference corners like Barron and Mukuba won’t be easy and Taafe may go pro. 

Texas rebounded remarkably well on its defensive front in 2024 after losing top-40 NFL Draft pick defensive tackles Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. Now it must replace the hefty duo of Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins, who are expected to follow Murphy and Sweat’s lead as draft picks. 

But the defensive front should be fine. Budding sophomore Colin Simmons, a pass-rushing menace who gave Ohio State fits, and rising junior linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. will be all over preseason All-American lists entering the 2025 season. A trio of Power Four transfer defenders have also committed already to bolster the defensive front seven. 

Plenty of skill talent

Offensive tackles Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams each have eligibility remaining, but both are also regarded as projected early-round NFL Draft picks. Banks is ranked the No. 1 offensive tackle in the class, according to the 2025 CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings, and Williams is No. 7.

Another potential departure is junior receiver Isaiah Bond, CBS Sports’ No. 35 overall NFL Draft prospect. Bnod started the year hot but an ankle injury turned him into a non-factor by November. The Longhorns will also miss the services of tight end Gunnar Helm, who earned all-SEC honors during a breakout senior season. 

However, there are plenty of talented pass-catchers with remaining eligibility who could be in line for big years. Top wide receiver Matthew Golden could return for his senior season, and other promising targets such as DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo aren’t draft-eligible. Wingo could be a star in time. 

Texas could also boast an embarrassment of riches at running back in 2025, depending on what this year’s top rushers Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue decide to do.

Former five-star back CJ Baxter is expected back from a preseason knee injury that kept him out for the year, and Jerrick Gibson also proved productive in a limited role as a freshman. Assuming three of the four are in a Texas uniform come late August, the Longhorns will have one of the deepest and most-talented backfields in college football.

The final prognosis

Texas is welcoming 247Sports’ No. 1 ranked high school recruiting class, which is the program’s fourth consecutive top-five class. As with any program, there is some draft-related and transfer portal attrition that Sarkisian will be forced to navigate.

But with a manageable 2025 schedule and a quarterback of Manning’s caliber on the roster, the future is bright. If Texas leans into Manning’s potential, it could produce its first Heisman Trophy winner since running back Ricky Williams in 1998 and be back on the big stage with a chance to win it all next season.